Hurricane season officially began on May 15th this
year in Baja California Sur. Normally this can mean serious tropical storms. Luckily
things haven’t been too rainy, or too windy so far this year…
But all this may be about to change. The calm before the
storm may be over. Reports yesterday and today from Metmex indicate a zone of instability
in the Pacific Ocean, south of the coast of Guerrero, that currently has a 60% chance
of becoming the next Pacific cyclone within 48 hours. The storm has been named
Javier and is highly likely to hit land.
For Cabo this will result
in serious rain from Monday, somewhere between 60-100mm - with upto 100km/hr winds following later in the
week as the storm takes hold.
Early this morning SMN reported the zone of instability as
currently located 30 km southwest of Acapulco, Guerrero, and heading northwest
with maximum sustained winds of 25 km / hr and gusts of 35 km / hr. It estimated
there is an 80% chance over the next 5 days of the storm reaching bordering
states in the Mexican Pacific including Baja California Sur.
Torrential rains have already started in Guerrero, with intense
storms in Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan, and very strong storms in Guanajuato
and Nayarit. The authorities in these
areas have urged everyone to exercise extra caution due to the heavy rains,
high waves and strong winds.
The MetMex forecasts suggests that Javier may evolve into
a hurricane by Tuesday or Wednesday – and may be the first this year to hit
land in Baja California Sur. But SMN has not yet posted a forecast of its
possible trajectory and evolution.
Watch this space for updates.