Believe it or not, the 2015 hurricane season is only one month away.
The official start date for the Eastern Pacific is May 15 and it will end on
November 30.
The first forecast from CONAGUA (The National Water
Commission) suggests that they are expecting 19 tropical cyclones, of which 8
will be tropical storms; 7 could be strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2), and
4 intense hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) i.e. of the magnitude of Odile.
Of course, it is early in the season to make accurate
predictions and also it must be remembered that the Eastern Pacific region is
vast so even if four intense hurricanes were to form, the probabilities of
another Odile scale disaster are remote. However nature is an unpredictable
force so the possibility exists.
The presence of El Niño this year will have an inevitable
impact on things. Paradoxically, an El Niño in the pacific seems to have a
calming influence on Atlantic hurricanes where early forecast by Colorado
university are predicting a lower than usual number of storms there.
El Niño was first officially declared by NOAA as winter
wound down. As of this early April forecast, El Niño, a periodic warming of the
equatorial Pacific waters, has been given a 60 percent chance of persisting
into the fall, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
"Our best estimate is that we will likely have at least
a moderate strength El Niño even during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane
season," said Klotzbach and Gray of Colorado University.
There is also a body of scientific evidence linking the
occurrence of El Niño with increased wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Basin,
which is one factor, along with dry air, that limits the development and
strengthening of tropical cyclones in that region.
However, exactly where the warming of the equatorial Pacific
waters takes place and the magnitude of that warming will play an active part
in the number of severe storms experienced in the Eastern Pacific.
“Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in
the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin”
said Dr Gerry Bell of NOAA. “Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity
in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic
basin” he added.
As last year, iTravel-Cabo will play an active part in
issuing early warnings and advisories as the season develops.
The NOAA, in readiness, has issued the naming conventions
for tropical storms and hurricanes for the 2015 season:
Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique
Felicia Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena
Kevin Linda Marty Nora Olaf
Patricia Rick Sandra Terry Vivian
Waldo Xina York Zelda